Programs
3/11 Sunday
Arrival
3/12 Monday
10:00-10:10 Opening: Tomiyuki Higuchi (Director-general of ISM)
Session 1 (Chair: Max Werner, Jeremy Zechar and Ken'ichiro Yamashina)
10:10 -10:35 Rodolfo Console
Renewal models of seismic recurrence applied to paleoseismological and historical observations
10:35-11:00 Shiyong Zhou
A new multi-dimensional stress release statistical model based on co-seismic stress transfer
11:00-11:25 Mark Bebbington
A Hidden Markov Model for the Earthquake Cycle
11:25-11:50 Zhongliang Wu
Testing the forecast of aftershocks: a simple method with an example of application
11:50-12:15 Masajiro Imoto
A Bayesian approach to estimating the long-term probability of an M8 earthquake in Kanto, central Japan
12:15 -12:40 Abdelhak Talbi
Earthquake forecasts from Inter-event Times statistics
Session 2 (Chair: Rodolfo Console and Mark Bebbington)
14:00 -14:25 Shinji Toda
Widespread seismicity excitation and seismic shadow following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and its implications for seismic hazard
14:25-14:50 Giuseppe Falcone
Real-time forecasting in Italy with ETES and ERS models
14:50 -15:15 Sayoko Yokoi
CSEP-Japan : The Japanese node of the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability
15:15 -15:40 Max Werner
Probabilistic earthquake forecasting: statistical vs. physical models of seismicity
15:40-16:00 Coffee break
Session 3 (Chair: Warner Marzocchi and David Marsan)
16:00-16:25 Ken'ichiro Yamashina
For a reasonable method of evaluating earthquake forecasts
16:25-16:50 Jeremy D. Zechar
Regional and global earthquake forecast experiments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
16:50-17:15 Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura
Power of relative quiescence
17:15-17:40 Kenji Maeda
Prediction performance of empirically defined foreshocks and its application to the 2011 off Tohoku earthquake
18:30 Conference dinner
3/13 Tuesday
Session 1 (Chair: David Harte, Shinji Toda, Sebastian Hainzl, and Changsheng Jiang)
9:00 -9:25 Andrea Llenos
Statistical modeling of seismicity rate changes in Oklahoma
9:25-9:50 Takao Kumazawa
Detecting misfits of the ETAS for seismicity anomalies
9:50-10:15 Toshiko Terakawa
High fluid pressure and triggered earthquakes in the enhanced geothermal system in Basel, Switzerland
10:15-10:40 Xinglin Lei
Statistic features of fluid-driven/related seismicities at different scales
10:40-11:00 Coffee break
11:00-11:25 Fuyuki Hirose
Relation between the slow slip that started since 2003 off Miyagi and Fukushima and the temporal variation of b-value
11:25-11:50 Bogdan Enescu
Triggered non-volcanic tremor in SW Japan, by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its aftershocks
11:50-12:15 Takeo Ishibe
Change in seismicity rate around 100 major late quaternary active faults due to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan earthquake
12:15 -12:40 David Harte
Bias in fitting the ETAS model: A case study based on New Zealand seismicity
Session 2 (Chair: Yosihiko Ogata and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura)
14:00 -14:25 Robert Nadeau
Repeating earthquake recurrence intervals: magnitude and time-dependence
14:25- 14:50 Shunichi Nomura
Space-time models of repeating earthquakes in Parkfield segment
14:50 -15:15 Naoki Uchida
Repeating earthquake activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
15:15 - 15:40 Masami Okada
A Bayesian model, negative binomial Model, for forecasting major aftershocks
15:40-16:00 Coffee break
Session 3 (Chair: Bogdan Enescu and Zhongliang Wu)
16:00-16:25 Changsheng Jiang
PI forecast with or without de-clustering: an experiment for the Sichuan-Yunnan region
16:25-16:50 Takaki Iwata
Daily variation of the detection capability of earthquake and its influence on the completeness magnitude
16:50 - 17:15 Jiancang Zhuang
On the criticality of branching models for earthquake occurrences
17:15 -17:40 Warner Marzocchi
On the frequency-magnitude distribution of converging boundaries
17:40-18:05 Hiroshi Tsuruoka
Development of Tool for SEISmicity Analysis: TSEIS and future scope
3/14 Wednesday
Session 1 (Chair: Jiancang Zhuang and Takaki Iwata)
9:30-10:00 Naoshi Hirata
Japanese national research program for earthquake prediction and the earthquake forecast testing experiment with statistical seismology
10:00-10:30 Mitsuhiro Mutsu'ura
Systematic errors in the inversion analysis of GPS array data to estimate interseismic slip-deficit rates at plate interfaces
11:30 -10:40 Coffee Break
10:40 -11:10 David Marsan
Modelling and analysis of foreshock sequences: can we identify anomalous aseismic deformation related to the nucleation of major earthquakes?
11:10-11:40 Sebastian Hainzl
Detection and modeling of seismicity driven by transient aseismic processes
11:40-12:20 Yosihiko Ogata
Delaunay-based Bayesian seismicity models: Introduction to a program package