3/11 Sunday


3/12 Monday

10:00-10:10 Opening: Tomiyuki Higuchi (Director-general of ISM)

Session 1 (Chair: Max Werner, Jeremy Zechar and Ken'ichiro Yamashina)

10:10 -10:35 Rodolfo Console

Renewal models of seismic recurrence applied to paleoseismological and historical observations

10:35-11:00 Shiyong Zhou

A new multi-dimensional stress release statistical model based on co-seismic stress transfer

11:00-11:25 Mark Bebbington

A Hidden Markov Model for the Earthquake Cycle

11:25-11:50 Zhongliang Wu

Testing the forecast of aftershocks: a simple method with an example of application

11:50-12:15 Masajiro Imoto

A Bayesian approach to estimating the long-term probability of an M8 earthquake in Kanto, central Japan

12:15 -12:40 Abdelhak Talbi

Earthquake forecasts from Inter-event Times statistics

Session 2 (Chair: Rodolfo Console and Mark Bebbington)

14:00 -14:25 Shinji Toda

Widespread seismicity excitation and seismic shadow following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and its implications for seismic hazard

14:25-14:50 Giuseppe Falcone

Real-time forecasting in Italy with ETES and ERS models

14:50 -15:15 Sayoko Yokoi

CSEP-Japan : The Japanese node of the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability

15:15 -15:40 Max Werner

Probabilistic earthquake forecasting: statistical vs. physical models of seismicity

15:40-16:00 Coffee break

Session 3 (Chair: Warner Marzocchi and David Marsan)

16:00-16:25 Ken'ichiro Yamashina

For a reasonable method of evaluating earthquake forecasts

16:25-16:50 Jeremy D. Zechar

Regional and global earthquake forecast experiments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

16:50-17:15 Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura

Power of relative quiescence

17:15-17:40 Kenji Maeda

Prediction performance of empirically defined foreshocks and its application to the 2011 off Tohoku earthquake

18:30  Conference dinner


3/13 Tuesday


Session 1 (Chair: David Harte, Shinji Toda, Sebastian Hainzl, and Changsheng Jiang)

9:00 -9:25 Andrea Llenos

Statistical modeling of seismicity rate changes in Oklahoma

9:25-9:50 Takao Kumazawa

Detecting misfits of the ETAS for seismicity anomalies

9:50-10:15 Toshiko Terakawa

High fluid pressure and triggered earthquakes in the enhanced geothermal system in Basel, Switzerland

10:15-10:40 Xinglin Lei

Statistic features of fluid-driven/related seismicities at different scales

10:40-11:00 Coffee break

11:00-11:25 Fuyuki Hirose

Relation between the slow slip that started since 2003 off Miyagi and Fukushima and the temporal variation of b-value

11:25-11:50 Bogdan Enescu

Triggered non-volcanic tremor in SW Japan, by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its aftershocks

11:50-12:15 Takeo Ishibe

Change in seismicity rate around 100 major late quaternary active faults due to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan earthquake

12:15 -12:40 David Harte

Bias in fitting the ETAS model: A case study based on New Zealand seismicity


Session 2 (Chair: Yosihiko Ogata and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura)

14:00 -14:25 Robert Nadeau

Repeating earthquake recurrence intervals: magnitude and time-dependence

14:25- 14:50 Shunichi Nomura

Space-time models of repeating earthquakes in Parkfield segment

14:50 -15:15 Naoki Uchida

Repeating earthquake activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

15:15 - 15:40 Masami Okada

A Bayesian model, negative binomial Model, for forecasting major aftershocks

15:40-16:00 Coffee break


Session 3 (Chair: Bogdan Enescu and Zhongliang Wu)

16:00-16:25 Changsheng Jiang

PI forecast with or without de-clustering: an experiment for the Sichuan-Yunnan region

16:25-16:50 Takaki Iwata

Daily variation of the detection capability of earthquake and its influence on the completeness magnitude

16:50 - 17:15 Jiancang Zhuang

On the criticality of branching models for earthquake occurrences

17:15 -17:40 Warner Marzocchi

On the frequency-magnitude distribution of converging boundaries

17:40-18:05 Hiroshi Tsuruoka

Development of Tool for SEISmicity Analysis: TSEIS and future scope


3/14 Wednesday


Session 1 (Chair: Jiancang Zhuang and Takaki Iwata)

9:30-10:00 Naoshi Hirata

Japanese national research program for earthquake prediction and the earthquake forecast testing experiment with statistical seismology

10:00-10:30 Mitsuhiro Mutsu'ura

Systematic errors in the inversion analysis of GPS array data to estimate interseismic slip-deficit rates at plate interfaces

11:30 -10:40 Coffee Break

10:40 -11:10 David Marsan

Modelling and analysis of foreshock sequences: can we identify anomalous aseismic deformation related to the nucleation of major earthquakes?

11:10-11:40 Sebastian Hainzl

Detection and modeling of seismicity driven by transient aseismic processes

11:40-12:20 Yosihiko Ogata

Delaunay-based Bayesian seismicity models: Introduction to a program package