Preliminary Results 1

From BemlarGroup

2007/11/09

ETAS estimates (homogeneous model):

A. With the first 100 cases:

a =  2.206372900260612

c =  0.2652217132933433

d =  6594.531589343244 (kilometer)

k =  94836.03702248541

p =  1.610762051307597

q =  3.652693525888731

m[0] = 1.737723471978272E-7

B. With the first 200 cases:

a =  1.3998096944251301

c =  1.9140184464020362

d =  2663.4166618757336 (kilometer)

k =  70081.61442876847

p =  5.673342539049129

q =  2.825762961460856

m[0] = 3.72677068842318E-7

C. With the first 300 cases:

a =  5.512968993699177

c =  1.1313708802653006

d =  2725.888915130955

k =  1.6375854598323668E15

p =  4.999999992549419

q =  9.999999991618097

m[0] = 6.152262513942844E-7