Preliminary Results 2

From BemlarGroup

2008/04/25

Note: What I had on 2007/11/09 was incorrect. There were some issue with units about 2007/11/09's results.

Newly updated test results as of 2008/04/25:

A. Homogeneous Test on only the data around Southern California.

Longitude = -122 to -114

Latitude = 32 to 37

Great circle distance is used.

From 26973 events of 1976/01/01 to 2007/03/31. Only .... 65 events seen in this time space window.

Homogeneous model is used.

ETAS parameter estimates:

a =  1.152659608097747

c =  0.3713446484909366

d =  0.11750109749367983

k =  3.997791559296919E-5

p =  1.315266571008634

q =  2.16352107282815

m = 9.991786854439388E-5

B. Homogeneous Test on only the data in a rectagle containing part of Japan Honshu.

Longitude = 140 to 142

Latitude = 35 to 39

Great circle distance is used.

From 26973 events of 1976/01/01 to 2007/03/31. 183 events seen in this time space window.

Homogeneous model is used.

ETAS parameter estimates:

a = 1.38572458573617

c = 0.23547515336566924

d = 0.02543024667305037

k = 2.411969978883447E-7

p = 1.2761938264603176

q = 2.5967556471013307

m = 0.002311510270345759

C. Homogeneous Test on only the data in a rectagle containing most of Taiwan and some ocean around it.

Longitude 120.27 to 121.63

Latitude = 22.63 to 25.3

Great circle distance is used.

From 26973 events of 1976/01/01 to 2007/03/31. Only... 66 events seen in this time space window.

Homogeneous model is used.

ETAS parameter estimates:

a = 1.8729885668028141

c = 2.2095480009819575

d = 0.3057682165973392

k = 1.0980547090964528E-6

p = 1.4451991459364262

q = 5.099761768244752

m = 0.0012576666430302013

D. Homogeneous Test on only the data in a rectagle containing part of Indonesia and some ocean around it.

Longitude 110 to 120

Latitude = -8 to -10

Great circle distance is used.

From 26973 events of 1976/01/01 to 2007/03/31. 132 events seen in this time space window.

Homogeneous model is used.

ETAS parameter estimates:

a = 1.170579122332856

c = 0.40536601900351643

d = 0.02676594056589284

k = 5.612822053465676E-6

p = 1.3906780676925807

q = 1.9745999993765326

m = 4.926086143494183E-4