25. Wang, Q., Jackson D. D., and Zhuang J. (2010). Are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California? J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2009JB007031. in press.

24. Jiang C.-S. and Zhuang J.-C. (2010). Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese with English abstract), 53(2): 305-317, doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.02.001.

23. Zhuang J. (2010) Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts . Geophysical Journal International DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04496.x Published online

22. Zhuang J. (2009) Statistical models for earthquake clustering and declustering. Proceeding of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (In Japanese with English abstract). Vol. 57, 178-193.

21. Zhuang J., Christophosen A., Savage M. K., Vere-Jones D., Ogata Y. and Jackson D. D. (2008) Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities. Journal of Geophysical Research. 113, B11302, doi:10.1029/2008JB005579.

20. Vere-Jones D. and Zhuang J. (2008) On the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model. Physical Review E., 78, 047102. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.78.047102

19. Yin X.-C., Zhang L.-P., Zhang H.-H., Yin C., Wang Y., Zhang Y., Peng K., Wang H., Song Z., Yu H. and Zhuang J. (2006) LURR's Twenty Years and its Perspective. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163: 2317-2341. doi:10.1007/s00024-006-0135-x.

18. Zhuang J. (2006) Second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and applications in model evaluation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 68 (4), 635-653. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2006.00559.x.

17. Zhuang J. and Ogata Y. (2006) Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks. Physical Review, E. 73, 046134. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134 .

16. Ogata Y. and Zhuang J. (2006). Space--time ETAS models and an improved extension. Tectonophysics. 413(1-2), 13-23.

15. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2005). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes. Chap. 15 (Pages 275-290) of Case Studies in Spatial Point Process Models, Edited by Baddeley A., Gregori P., Mateu J., Stoica R. and Stoyan D. Springer-Verlag, New York. 320 pages.

14. Zhuang J. (2005) Discussion on "Residual analysis for spatial point processes" by Baddeley A., Turner R., M{\o}ller J. and Hazelton M., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B , 67(5) 656-657, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00519.x.

13. Zhuang J., Vere-Jones D., Guan H., Ogata Y. and Ma L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in a region around Beijing. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162: 1367-1396, doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2674-3. [data]

12. Zhuang J., Chang C.-P., Ogata Y. and Chen Y.-I. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using a point process model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

11. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, No. B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879. 

10. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97: 369-380.

9. Ma L. and Zhuang J. (2001). Relative quiescence within the Jiashi swarm in China: an application of the ETAS point process model. Journal of Applied Probability, Special Volume for "Probability, Statistics and Seismology". Edited by D. Delay. 38(A): 213-221.

8. Zhuang J. and Ma L. (2000). Main Shock and After Shock -- From the Omori law to the epidemic aftershock model. Recent Development in World Seismology (In Chinese with English abstract), 2000 No. 5: 12-18.

7. Zhuang J. (2000). Statistical modeling of seismicity patterns before and after the 1990 Oct 5 Cape Palliser earthquake, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics. 43: 447-460.

6. Liu J., Zhuang J., Vere-Jones D., Shi Y. and Ma L. (2000). The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model. Acta Seismologica Sinica. 13: 38-49.

5. Zhuang J. and Yin X. (2000). Random distribution of the loading and unloading response ratio under the assumptions of Poisson models. Earthquake Research in China . 14(2).

4. Wang H., Peng K., Zhuang J., Zhang X. and Yin X. (1999). Analysis on the Effect of Sample conditions on the Results of Load/Unload Response Ratio. Earthquake (In Chinese with English abstract). 19(3):223-229.

3. Liu J., Vere-Jones D., Ma L., Shi Y. and Zhuang J. (1998). The principle of coupled stress release model and its application. Acta Seismologica Sinica. 11: 273-281.

2. Shi Y., Liu J., Zhuang J. and Ma L. (1998). Applications of mechanical and statistical models to study of seismicity and prediction of synthetic earthquakes. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 11: 421-430.

1. Zhuang J. and Ma L. (1998). The stress release model and results from modeling features of some seismic regions in China. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 11: 59-70.

Unpublished Manuscripts

Research Memorandums, Work Reports and Conference Proceedings

1. Yin X., Cheng X., Wang Y., Wang H., Peng K., Zhang Y. and Zhuang J. (1999). Development of a new approach for earthquake prediction -- Load/Unload Response Ratio. First ACES Workshop Proceedings (edited by Mora Peter), APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation.

2. Ogata Y. and Zhuang J. (2001). Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes M>=4.0 around Beijing area based on the ultra-low frequency electric observation (1982-1997). Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 66, 562-570, Geographical Survey Institute, Tsukuba, Japan.

3. Zhuang J., Vere-Jones D., Guan Huaping, Ogata Y. and Ma L. (2004). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in a region around Beijing. Research Memorandum, No. 916, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. [pdf: link 1 link 2][data: link 1 link 2]

4. Zhuang J. (2005) Multi-dimensional second-order residual anaysis of space-time point processes and its applications in modelling earthquake data. Research Memorandum, No. 941, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. [Contents: pdf ]

5. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes. International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling and its Applications (SPPA). 2004/04/04 -- 2004/04/08, Benicassim, Castellon (Spain). [Proceeding manuscript: pdf]

Ph. D. Thesis

Zhuang J. (2003). Some Applications of Point Processes in Seismicity Modelling and Prediction. Ph. D. thesis, the Graduate Unversity for Advanced Studies, Kanagawa, Japan. [pdf] [zipped ps]

Some Invited Talks

1. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Visualizing goodness-of-fit of a point process model for earthquake clusters. Cherry Bud Workshop --- Analysis of Natural and Social Phenomena:Data Science and System Reduction. 2004/03/21 -- 2004/03/23. Pan Pacific Hotel, Yokohama, Japan. [ppt]

2. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes. International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling and its Applications (SPPA). 2004/04/04 -- 2004/04/08, Benicassim, Castellon (Spain). [ppt] [Proceeding manuscript: pdf]

Non-Invited Conference Presentations

Zhuang J. (2008) Weighted likelihoods and maximum local likelihoods estimates for point processes. The 2008 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting (76th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society) , Keio University, Hiyosi, Kanagawa, Japan, September 2008.

Zhuang J. and Ogata Y. (2008) Space-time ETAS model and stochastic declustering. National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, India. 13 Augest 2008.

Zhuang J. and Vere-Jones D. (2008) Asymptotic properties of a marked branching process and interpretation to a empirical law in seismology. The 7th World Congress in Probability and Statistics, Singapore, July 14-19, 2008.

Zhuang J. and Jackson D. D. (2006). Foreshock probabilities in Southern California explained by clustering models. American Geophysical Union 2006 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, December 2006.

Zhuang, J. Christophersen A., Jackson D. D., Y. Ogata, Savage M. K., Vere-Jones D. (2006). Foreshock Probabilities. 2006 SCEC Annual Meeting, Palm Spring, California, USA. September, 2006.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Probability distributions associated foreshocks implied by clustering models for earthquake occurrences, 2006 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Beijing International Convention Center, Beijing, China, July 2006.

·   Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2006). Statistical modelling (tests) of the relationship between precursory phenomena and earthquake ocurrences, 2006 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Beijing International Convention Center, Beijing, China, July 2006.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region, 2006 International Workshop on Earthquake Precursor, National Central University, Taiwan, March 2006.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster law, 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village campus, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, January 2006.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005). The largest events in earthquake clusters and their relationship to foreshocks, American Geophysical Union 2005 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, December 2005.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005). A study on the discrimination of foreshocks and other types of earthquakes by using stochastic reconstruction, The Seismological Society of Japan 2005 fall meeting, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan, October 2005.

·   Zhuang, J. (2005). Second-order residual analysis of space-time point processes, 73th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society, Hiroshima Prince Hotel, Hiroshima City, Japan, September 2005.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005).  Analyzing foreshock features by using stochastic reconstruction, The 2005 Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Japan, May 2005.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by stochastic reconstruction -- foreshocks, American Geophysical Union 2004 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, December 2004.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Residual analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquake occurrences, Space-time statistical analysis; theory and applications, Kagoshima, Japan, November 2004.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Some features of background and clustering seismicity resolved by using stochastic declustering, 2004 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kyusyu University, Fukuoka, Japan, October 2004.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Residual analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquake occurrences, 72th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society, Fuji University, Hanamaki City, Japan, September 2004.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Stochastic reconstruction of clustering features of earthquakes, 2004 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Japan, May 2004.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Stochastic reconstruction of clustering features of earthquakes, 2004 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Japan, May 2004.  

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes, International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling and its Applications (SPPA), Castellon Spain, April 2004.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, Science of Modeling — The 30th Anniversary of the Information Criterion (AIC) —,Pacifico Yokohama, Japan, December 2003.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Testing of hypotheses associated earthquake clustering features by using the stochastic reconstruction method, American Geophysical Union 2003 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, December 2003.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Stochastic reconstruction of characteristics associated with earthquake clusters, 71th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society, Meijo University, Nagoya, Japan, September 2003.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Stochastic reconstruction of characteristics associated with earthquake clusters, workshop on Point Processes - Theory and Applications, the Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS), Banff Centre, Banff, Canada, June 2003.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata1, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ma, L., Chen, Z., and Xiao, W. (2003). Statistical confirmation and evaluation of a relationship between excitation of the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals and magnitude M>4 earthquakes in a 300 km radius region around Beijing, 3rd International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Juriquilla, Mexico, May 2003.

·   Zhuang, J. (2003). Graphical user interface framework for Statistical Seismology Library (SSLIB), 3rd International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Juriquilla, Mexico, May 2003.

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updated on 12/March/2006.