International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes

on the occasion of celebrating Prof. Yosi Ogata's 40-year research career in statistical seismology

Date: 2012-03-11 to 2012-03-14

Location: Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8562

Room: D305 (Seminar Room #1)

1. Aims

Earthquakes are a complex multi-scale phenomenon that produced by the interaction between the stress fields and the fault systems. Even with high resolution data obtained through GPS, density seismic arrays and other methods, we still lack of direct approaches to know the underground processes of earthquake preparation. Statistical modeling provides us not only a “brick-by-brick” approach to refine our knowledge to the earthquake process from the random patterns of earthquake activities, but also a natural way to forecast seismicity probabilistically. This symposium will focus on the theories and technologies related to the construction and validation of physical based statistical models for moderate-term, short-term and real-time earthquake forecasts.

Among the statistical models for the process of earthquake occurrences, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which is extend from the Omori-Utsu law, has been widely accepted as a standard model for normal seismicity. This model plays a central role in daily earthquake probability forecasts in the global project of Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The symposium is also a colloquium on the occasion for celebrating of Prof Yosi Ogata's 40-year research career in statistical seismology, during which the ETAS model was developed.

2. Invited speakers:

• Prof. Mark Bebbington (Massey Univ., New Zealand)

• Dr. Rodolfo Console (INGV, Italy)

• Dr. Giuseppe Falcone (INGV, Italy)

• Dr. Bogdan Enescu (NIED)

• Dr. Sebastian Hainzl (GFZ, Germany)

• Dr. David Harte (SRA, New Zealand)

• Prof. Naoshi Hirata (ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

• Dr. Fuyuki Hirose (Meteor. Res. Inst.)

• Dr. Masajiro Imoto (NIED)

• Dr. Takeo Ishibe (ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

• Dr. Changsheng Jiang (IGP-CEA, China)

• Dr. Xinglin Lei (AIST)

• Dr. Andrea Llenos (USGS, USA)

• Dr. Kenji Maeda (Meteor. Res. Inst.)

• Dr. David Marsan (Univ. Savoie, France)

• Prof. Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura (ISM & Univ. Tokyo)

• Dr. Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura (Assoc. for the Development of Earthquake Prediction)

• Dr. Warner Marzocchi (INGV, Italy)

• Dr. Robert M. Nadeau (UC Berkeley, USA)

• Dr. Masami Okada (Meteor. Res. Inst.)

• Dr. AbdelhakI Talbi (ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

• Dr. Toshiko Terakawa (Nagoya Univ.)

• Dr. Hiroshi Tsuruoka (ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

• Dr. Naoki Uchida (Univ. Tohoku)

• Dr. Max Werner (Princeton Univ., USA)

• Prof. Zhongliang Wu (IGP-CEA, China)

• Dr. Ken'ichiro Yamashina (ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

• Dr. Sayoko Yokoi (ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

• Dr. Jeremy D. Zechar (ETH, Switzerland)

• Prof. Shiyong Zhou (Peking Univ., China)

3. Programs

March 11^th (Sunday) Arrival

March 12^th (Monday) Scientific sessions

March 13^th (Tuesday) Scientific sessions

March 14^th (Wednesday) Morning, Scientific sessions

Afternoon, adjourn

Click here for details. [html version] [pdf version with abstracts]

4. How to arrive

Please see http://www.ism.ac.jp/access/index_e.html for the information to access the institute. However, we have the following suggestion to simplify the trip for international participants who will use Narita Airport.

• By bus. From Naria airport, you can take a bus to "Palace Hotel Tachikawa” or “Grant Hotel Tachikawa”. The bus costs 3500 Japanese Yen, Narita Airport. The trip takes about 2 to 3 hours depending on the traffic conditions. The Ticket Counter for the bus is facing you as you come out of the customs hall. The procedure is to buy the ticket for "Palace Hotel Tachikawa" or “Grant Hotel Tachikawa” from the counter before you board the bus.

  If you are going to stay in Akaike Guest House, we suggest that you alight the bus at the “Grant Hotel Tachikawa” (Tachikawa Railway Station) stop, and then change to Buss at Bus Terminals 1 or 2 at Tachikawa station. Here is a map showing how you can change the bus. The closest stations to Institute of Statistical Mathematics are Shiyakusho (City Hall, for buses from Terminals 1 and 2) and Tachikawa Gakujutsu Plaza (Tachikawa Academic Plaza, for buses from Terminal 2). Akaike Guest House is behind the main building.

  Timetable (Arrival time shown here are scheduled expected time. Due to traffic on the way, the bus services may run behind the schedules. )

• By train. There are Narita Express (NEX) trains departure from NARITA airport. You need change to a Chuo Line train at Tokyo or Shinjuku Station. From Shinjuku Station, you can also take a Special Express (Super Azusa) on Platform 10 to Tachikwa. The cost is about 3850 Yen in total. However, this method is not so good when you are going with heavy luggage.

  From Tachikawa station, please use the north exit and go down to the ground level to take Bus Lines 1 or 2. The closest stations to Institute of Statistical Mathematics are Shiyakusho (City Hall, for buses from Terminals 1 and 2) and Tachikawa Gakujutsu Plaza (Tachikawa Academic Plaza, for buses from Terminal 2). Akaike Guest House is behind the main building.

• Please do not hesitate to write to us if you have any questions about how to get to the institute.

5. Organizations

Advisory committee:

Prof. Tomoyuki Higuchi (Director-general, ISM)

Prof. Hiroe Tsubaki (ISM)

Prof. Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura (ISM & Univ. Tokyo)

Prof. Naoshi Hirata (ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

Programming and organizing committee:

Dr. Jiancang Zhuang (ISM)

Dr. Takaki Iwata (ISM)

Dr. Kazuyoshi Nanjo (ERI, Univ. Tokyo)

Dr. Shinji Toda (DPRI, Univ. Kyoto)

Sponsor:

The Institute of Statistical Mathematics