[Home]
Main Publications
152. Pei W., Zhuang J., Zhou S. (2024) Stochastic determination of arrival time and initial polarity of seismic waveform. Submitted.
151. Gentili S., Brondi P., Sugan M., Petrillo G., Zhuang J., Campanella S. (2024) Seismic clusters and fluids diffusion: a lesson from the 2018 Molise (Southern Italy) earthquake sequence. Available from Research square. Submitted.
150. Zhuang J. (2024) Earthquake predictability and forecast evaluation using likelihood based marginal and conditional scores. Submitted.
149. Chen F., Xu S., Wang D., Yan B., Zhang J., Guo Y., Zhuang J. and Shearer P. (2024). Reactivation of hydrated out-rise normal faults accompanied by extremely slow-decaying aftershock activity during the 2017 Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquake. Submitted.
148. Petrillo G., Kumazawa T., Napolitano F., Capuano P., Zhuang J. (2024) Fluids-Triggered Swarm sequence supported by a non-Stationary Epidemic-like description of Seismicity. Seismological Research Letters, in press.
147. Bernabeu A., Zhuang J., Mateu J. (2024) Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes: a review. Accepted by Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics.
146. Hammond C. R., Zhuang J., LeBlanc C., Rahimi-Ardabily S., Zhang T., Good R., Loge F. J. (2024) Conceptual Water Main Failure Risk: Self-Excitation, Pipe Age, and Statistical Modeling Performance. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 150: 04024042. doi: 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6432.
145. Liu Y., Zhuang J., Guo Y., Jiang C., Tain Q., Zhang Y., Long F. (2024) Background and clustering characteristics of recent seismicity in Southwestern China. Geophysical Journal International, 238: 1291-1313. doi:10.1093/gji/ggae211
144. Si Z., Zhuang J., Jiang C., Gentili S., Wang W. (2024) A Bayesian merging of earthquake magnitudes determined by multiple seismic networks. Seismological Research Letters. doi:10.1785/0220230404.
143. Spassiani I., Petrillo G., Zhuang J. (2024) Distribution related to all samples and extreme events in the ETAS cluster. Seismological Research Letters. doi:10.1785/0220230324.
142. Petrillo G., Zhuang J. (2024) Bayesian earthquake forecasting approach based on the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model. Earth Planets Space, 76: 78. doi:10.1186/s40623-024-02021-8
141. Guo Y., Zhuang J., Zhang H. (2024) Statistical modeling of 3D seismicity and its correlation with fault slips along major faults in California. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 638: 118747. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2024.118747
140. Li Y., Zhuang J., Shi C., Guo Y., Xiong Z. (2024) A 3D spherical ETAS model: A case study in the Alaska-Aleutian region. Seismological Research Letters. doi:10.1785/0220230440
139. Shen X., Zhuang J. (2024) Residual analysis based model improvement for state space models with nonlinear responses. IEEE Transactions on Emerging Topics in Computational Intelligence, 8: 1728-1743. doi:10.1109/TETCI.2024.3355813.
138. Petrillo G., Lippiello E., Zhuang J. (2023) Including stress relaxation in point-process model for seismic occurrence. Geophysical Journal International, doi:10.1093/gji/ggad482.
137. Li, H., Chen, S., Zhang, B., Li, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2024). Bayesian inversion for modeling 3D density structures in the eastern margin of Bayan Har block and its tectonic implications. Geophysical Journal International, 236(2): 872-887, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad453.
136. Buckby J., Wang T., Fletcher D., Zhuang J., Takeo A., Obara K. (2023) Finding the number of latent states in hidden Markov models using information criteria. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. doi:10.1007/s10651-023-0584-5
135. Petrillo G., Zhuang J. (2023) Verifying the magnitude dependence in earthquake occurrence. Physical Review Letters. 131:154101. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.131.154101
134. Wang L., Chen S., Zhuang J., Zhang B., Shi W., Yang J., Xu W. (2023) Gravity field changes reveal deep mass transfer before and after the 2013 Lushan earthquake. Communications of Earth & Environment 4: 194. doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00860-z
133. Niu Y., Zhuang J., Xiong Z. (2023) Second-order smoothness prior over the Delaunay Tessellation in Bayesian geophysical inversion. Spatial Statistics, 54:100735. doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2023100735.
132. Guo Y., Zhuang J. and Zhang H. (2022). Characterization of seismicity in Nankai and its association with long-term slow slip events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solide Earth. 128:e2022JB025984. doi:10.1029/2022JB025984.
131. Xiong Z., Zhuang J. (2023) SETAS: A spherical version of the space-time ETAS model. Seismological Research Letters. 94:1676--1688
130. Zhang B., Chen S., Zhuang J., Zhang B., and Wu X. (2023) Statistical evaluation of earthquake forecast efficiency using earthquake-catalog and fault slip rate in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, China. Frontiers in Geosciences -- Solid Earth Geophysics.
129. Petrillo G., Zhuang J. The debate on the earthquake magnitude correlations: a meta-analysis. Scientific Reports, 12: 20683. do:10.1038/s41598-022-25276-1.
128. Benali A., Zhuang J. and Talbi A. (2022). An updated version of the ETAS model based on multiple change points detection. Accepted by Acta Geophysica.
127. Zhuang J. (2022) Statistical Seismology. In: Daya Saga B. S., Cheng Q., McKinely J., Agterberg F. (eds) Encyclopedia of Mathematical Geosciences. Encyclopeida of Earth Sciences Series. Cham. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-26050-7_34-1.
126. Zhuang J., and Siew H.Y. (2022). A simultaneous estimation of the baseline intensity and parameters for modulated renewal processes. Axioms, 11(7), 303. doi:10.3390/axioms11070303.
125. Si Z., Zhuang J. and Jiang C. (2022). A Bayesian algorithm for mangitude determination by merging multple seismic networks. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (Acta Sinica Geophysica) (in Chinese with English abstract), 65(6): 2167-2178. doi:10.6038/cjg2022P0138.
124. Taroni M., Zhuang J. and Marzocchi W. (2022). Reply to comment on "High-definition mapping of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and its relevance: a case study in Italy". Seismological Research Letters, 93:1095-1097. doi:10.1785/0220210159
123. Lee Y., Laub P., Taimre T., Zhao H. and Zhuang J. (2022). Exact simulation of extrinsic stress-release processes. Applied Probability Journals, 59(1):105-117. doi:10.1017/jpr.2021.35.
122. Wang L., Chen S., Zhuang J. and Xu W. (2022). Simultaneous calibration of instrument scale factor and drift rate in network adjustment for continental-scale gravity survey campaign. Geophysical Journal International, 228:1541--1555. doi:10.1093/gji/ggab419
121. Zhuang J., Koyama S. and Nomura S. (2021). On the special issue of Hawkes processes: new developments and applications. Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 69:121-122.
120. Zhuang J. and Ogata Y. (2021). The ETAS model in statistical seismology: Its history, recent developments, and influences on general Hawkes processes. Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 69:145-163.
119. Guo Y. and Zhuang J. (2021). (2021). Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and the applications. Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 69:223-237.
118. Zheng Y., Enescu B., Zhuang J. and Yu C. (2021). Data replenishment of five moderate earthquake sequences in Japan, with semi-automatic cluster selection. Earthquake Science, 34:310-322. doi: 10.29382/eqs-2021-0030.
117. Taroni M., Selva J. and Zhuang J. (2021). Estimation of the tapered Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameters for catalogs with variable completeness: An application to the Atlantic ridge seismicity. Applied Sciences, 11, 12166. doi:10.3390/app112412166
116.Yang J., Chen S., Zhang B., Zhuang J., Wang L. and Lu H. (2021). Gravity Observations and Apparent Density Changes before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0 Earthquake and Their Precursory Significance. Entropy , 23, 1687. doi:10.3390/e23121687
115. Li H.L., Chen S., Zhuang J.C., Zhang B. and Lu. H.Y. (2021). A Bayesian data fusion algorithm for multi-source Bouguer gravity anomalies and its application in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 64(9): 3232-3245 (In Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.6038/cjg2021O0291
114. Li H.L., Chen S., Zhuang J.C., Zhang B. and Shi L. (2021). Gravity inversion method based on Bayesian-assimilation and its application in constructing crust density model of the Longmenshan region. Chinese Journal of Geophysics,64(4): 1236-1252 (in Chinese with English abstract).doi: 10.6038/cjg2021O0130
113. Pei W., Zhou S. and Zhuang J. (2021). Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probability seismic hazard assessment studies. Science China Earth Sciences. Appear online. doi:10.1007/s11430-021-9824-0
113. Wang L., Chen S., Zhuang J. and Xu W. (2022). Simultaneous calibration of instrument scale factor and drift rate in network adjustment for continental-scale gravity survey campaign. Geophysical Journal International, 228:1541--1555.
112. Shen X., Ouyang T., N. Yang and Zhuang J. (2021). Sample-based Neural Approximation Approach for Probabilistic Constrained Programs. The IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems. doi:10.1109/TNNLS.2021.3102323.
111. Xiong Z., Zhuang J., Zhou S., Matsu'ura M., Hao M. and Wang Q. (2021). Crustal strain-rate fields estimated from GNSS data with a Bayesian approach and its correlation to seismic activity in Mainland China. Tectonophysics, 815:22903. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2021.229003.
110. Jia K., Zhou S., Zhuang J. and Jiang C. (2021). Stress transfer along the western boundary of the Bayan Har Block on the Tibet Plateau from the 2008 to 2020 Yutian earthquake sequence in China. Geophysical Research Letters, 48:e2021GL094125. doi:10.1029/2021GL094125
109. Taroni M., Zhuang J. and Marzocchi W. (2021). High-Definition Mapping of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and its Relevance: A Case Study in Italy. Seismological Research Letters, 92:3778-3784. doi:10.1785/0220210017
108. Guo Y., Zhuang J. and Zhang H. (2021). Heterogeneity of aftershock productivity along the mainshock ruptures and its advantage in improving short-term aftershock forecast. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126:e202JB020494. doi:10.102/202JB020494.
107. Hsu Y.J., Kao H., Burgmann R., Lee Y.T., Huang H.H., Hsu Y.F., Wu Y.M. and Zhuang J. (2021). Synchronized and Asynchronous Modulation of Seismicity by Hydrological Loading: A Case Study in Taiwan. Science Adavances, 7(16):eabf7282. doi:10.1126/sciadv.abf7282
106. Xiong Z., Zhou S. and Zhuang J. (2020). Inferring seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China based on the modern earthquake catalogue (1980-2019). Earthquake Science 33, 107-115. doi: 10.29382/eqs-2020-0107-01.
105. Shen X., Ouyang T., Khajorntraidet C., Li Y., Li S. and Zhuang J. (2021). Mixture Density Networks-based Knock Simulator. IEEE/ASME Transactions on Mechatronics, 27:159-168. doi: 10.1109/TMECH.2021.3059775.
104. Zhuang J. (2021). Explaining foreshock and the Bath law using a generic earthquake clustering model. In Statistical Methods and modelling of seismogenesis, N. Limnios, E. Papadimitriou, G. Tsaklidis. Iste.
103. Wang L., Chen S., Zhuang J., Lu H., Zhang B. and Yang J. (2021). Bayesian estimation of the scale factor of relative gravimeter in precise gravity survey. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica 49(12): 1543-1553. doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2020.20200185.
102. Liu Y., Zhuang J. and Jiang C. (2021). Background Seismicity before and after the 1976 Ms 7.8 Tangshan Earthquake: Is Its Aftershock Sequence Still Continuing?. Seismological Research Letters, published online. doi:10.1785/0220200179.
101. Zhuang J., Matsu'ura M. and Han P. (2021). Critical zone of the branching crack model for earthquakes: Inherent randomness, earthquake predictability, and precursor modelling. European Physical Journal Special Topics. 230: 409-424. "The Global Earthquake Forecasting System: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes" (Eds. F. Freund, A. Mignan, G. Ouillon, and D. Sornette). doi:10.1140/epjst/e2020-000272-7
100. Han P., Zhuang J., Hatorri K., Chen C.H., Febriani F., Chen H., Yoshino C. and Yoshida S. (2020). Assessing the potential earthquake precursory information in ULF magnetic data recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000--2010: distance and magnitude dependences. Entropy, 859. doi:10.3390/e22080859.
99. Varini E., Peresan A., and Zhuang J. (2020). Topological comparison between the stochastic and the nearest-neighbour earthquake declustering methods through network analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 125: e2020JB019718.
98. Jia K., Zhou S., Zhuang J., Jiang C., Guo Y., Gao Z., Gao S., Ogata Y. and Song X. (2020). Nonstationary background seismicity rate and evolution of stress changes in the Changning salt mining and shale-gas hydraulic fracturing region, Sichuan Basin, China. Seismological Research Letters. doi:10.1785/0220200092
97. Katsumata K., Zhuang J. (2020). A New Method for Imaging Seismic Quiescence and Its Application to the Mw>=8.3 Kurile Islands Earthquake on 15 November 2006. Pure Appl. Geophys.. 177:3619-3630. doi:10.1007/s00024-020-02498-w
96. Buckby J., Wang T., Zhuang J. and Obara K. (2020). Model checking for hidden Markov models. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. 20(4): 859-874. doi:10.1080/10618600.2020.1743295
95. Shen X., Zhuang J. and Zhang X. (2020). Approximate uncertain program. IEEE access. 7, 182357-182365. doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2958621
94. Zhuang J. (2019). Estimation, diagnostics, and extensions of nonparametric Hawkes processes with kernel functions. Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science. doi:10.1007/s42081-019-00060-0
93. Guo, Y., J. Zhuang, Y. Ogata (2019) Modelling and forecasting aftershocks can be improved by incorporating rupture geometry in the ETAS model. Geophysical Research Letters. 46, 12881-12889. doi:10.1029/2019GL084775
92. Xiong Z., Zhuang J. and Zhou S. (2019). Long-term earthquake hazard in North China estimated from a modern catalog. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 109, 2340-2355. doi:10.1785/012019006
91. Shcherbakov R., Zhuang J., Zoeller G. and Ogata Y. (2019). Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake. Nature Communications, 10:4051. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4.
90. Zhou P., Yang H., Wang B. and Zhuang J. (2019). Seismological investigations of induced earthquakes near the Hutubi underground gas storage facility. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124: 8753-8770. doi:10.1029/2019JB017360
89. Niu Y.Y., Guo L.H., Shi L., Chen S. and Zhuang J.C. (2019). Estimation of near-surface density based on gravity Bayesian analysis and its application in Yunnan area. Chinese Journal of Geophysics: 62(6), 2101-2114, doi;10.6038/cjg2019M0332
88. Zhuang J., Wang T. and Kiyosugi K. (2020). Detection and replenishment of missing data in marked point processes. Statistica Sinica. 30: 2105-2130. doi:10.5705/ss.202017.0403.
87. Zhuang J. and Mateu J. (2019). A semi-parametric spatiotemporal Hawkes-type point process model with periodic background for crime data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. A. :182(3), 919-942. doi:10.1111/rssa.12429.
86. Zhuang J., Murru M., Falcone G. and Guo Y. (2019). An extensive study of clustering features of seismicity in Italy from 2005 to 2016. Geophysical Journal International. 216:302-318. doi:10.1093/gji/ggy428
85. Zhuang J. (2018). Likelihood-based detection of cluster centers for Neyman-Scott point processes. Journal of Environmental Statistics, 8(3): 1--15.
84. Chen S., Zhuang J., Li X., Lu H. and Xu W. (2019). Bayesian approach for network adjustment for gravity survey campaign: methodology and model test. Journal of Geodesy. 93(5):681-700. doi:10.1007/s00190-018-1190-7
83. Zhuang J. (2018). Comment on "A review of self-exciting spatiotemporal point process and their applications" by Alex Reinhart. Statistical Science. 33: 323-324. doi:10.1214/17-STS629
82. Wang T., Zhuang J., Buckby J., Obara K., and Tsuruoka H. (2018). Identifying the recurrence patterns of non-volcanic tremors using a 2D hidden Markov model with extra zeros. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 123: 6801-6825. doi: 10.1029/2017JB015360
81. Schorlemmer D, Werner M.J., Marzocchi W., Jordan T.H., Ogata Y., Jackson D.D., Mak S., Rhoades D.A., Gerstenberger M.C., Hirata N., Liukis M., Maechling P.J., Strader A., Taroni M., Wiemer S., Zechar J.D. and Zhuang J. (2018). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities. Seismological Research Letters. 89 (4): 1305-1313. doi:10.1785/0220180053
80. Guo Y., Zhuang J. and N. Hirata (2018). Modeling and forecasting 3D-hypocenter seismicity in the Kanto region. Geophysical Journal International, 214: 520-530. doi:10.1093/gji/ggy154
79. Zhou Y.J., Zhou S.Y. and Zhuang J.C. (2018). A test on methods for MC estimation based on earthquake catalog. Earth and Planetary Physics, 2: 150-162. doi:10.26464/epp2018015
78. Jia K., Zhou S., Zhuang J., Jiang C., Guo Y., Gao Z. and Gao S. (2018). Did the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake trigger the occurrence of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan, China? Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth.123: 2965-2983. doi:10.1002/2017JB015165
77. Wang Y., Wang T., Zhuang J. (2018). Modelling continuous time series with many zeros and an application to earthquakes. Environmetrics. 2018;29:e2500. doi:10.1002/env.2500
76. Opris A., Enescu B, Yagi Y. and Zhuang J. (2018). Triggering and decay characteristics of dynamically activated seismcity in Southwest Japan. Geophysical Journal International, 212: 1010-1021. doi:10.1093/gji/ggx456.
75. Jiang C., Zhuang J., Wu Z. and Bi J. (2017). Application and comparison of two short-term probabilistic forecasting models for the 2017 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan, Ms7.0 earthquake. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 60:4132-4144. doi:10.6038/cjg20171038
74. Shcherbakov R., Zhuang J. and Ogata Y. (2017). Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence. Geophysical Journal International. doi:10.1093/gji//ggx407
73. Yang H., Liu Y., Wei M., Zhuang J. and Zhou S. (2017). Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 60:1632-1644, doi:10.1007/s11430-017-9063-0
72. Wang T., Zhuang J., Obara K. and Tsuruoka H. (2017). Hidden Markov modelling of sparse time series from non-volcanic tremor observations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66:691-715, doi:10.1111/rssc.12194
71. Guo Y., Zhuang J., Hirata N., Zhou S. (2017). Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture. Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth, 122, doi:10.1002/2017JB014064.
70. Wang D., Kawakatsu H., Zhuang J., Mori J., Maeda T., Tsuruoka H. and Zhao X. (2017). Automated determination of magnitude and source length of large earthquake s using backprojection and P wave amplitudes. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5447-5456, doi:10.1002/2017GL073801.
69. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Wang T. (2017). Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters. Earth, Planets and Space, 69:36. doi:10.1186/s40623-017-0614-6
68. Han P., Hattori K., Zhuang J., Chen C.H., Liu J.Y. and Yoshida S. (2016). Evaluation of ULF seismo-magnetic phenomena in Kakioka, Japan by using Molchan's error diagram. Geophysical Journal International, 208: 482-490. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggw404.
67. Zhuang J., Wang D. and Matsu'ura M. (2016). Features of the earthquake source process simulated by Vere-Jones' branching crack model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. Volume 106. doi:10.1785/0120150337.
66. Luo J. and Zhuang J.(2016). Three regimes of the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 106(3), 1364-1369. doi:10.1785/0120150324.
65. Huang Y.L., Zhou S.Y. and Zhuang J.C. (2016). Numerical tests on catalog-based methods to estimate magnitude of completeness (in Chinese with English abstract). Chinese Journal of Geophysics. 59:1350-1358. doi:10.6038/cjg20160416. [pdf]
64. Chu A., and Zhuang J.(2016) Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement. In Rock Anisotropy, Fracture and Earthquake Assessment, edited by Li Y.G.. Pages 219-237.
63. Chen S., Jiang C. and Zhuang J. (2016). Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its Analytic Signal in Western China. Pure and Applied Geophysics. 173: 305-319. doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1114-x
62. Huang Q., Gerstenberger M. and Zhuang J. (2016). Current challenges in statistical seismology. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 173: 1-3. doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1222-7
61. Zhuang J. (2015). Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes. Spatial Statistics. 14: 166-178. doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2015.07.009
60. Zhuang J. and Ogata Y. (2015). Evaluation methods of earthquake forecasts (in Japanese). Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 63: 29-44
59. Guo Y., Zhuang J. and Zhou S. (2015). A hypocentral version of the space-time ETAS model. Geophysical Journal International, 203: 366-372. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv319
58. Guo Y., Zhuang J., and Zhou S. (2015). An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering. Journal of Geophysical research, 120, 3309-3323. doi:10.1002/2015JB011979
57. Zhuang J. and Touati S. (2015). Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalogs. Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-43806322, available at http://www.corssa.org.
56. Murru M., Zhuang J., Console R. and Falcone G. (2014). Short-term earthquake forecasting experiment before and during the L'Aquila (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 2009. Annals of Geophysics, 57(6): S0649. doi:10.4401/ag-6583.
55. Zechar J.D., and Zhuang J. (2014). A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 199, 60-68. doi:10.1093/gji/ggu137
54. Han, P., K. Hattori, M. Hirokawa, Zhuang J., C.-H. Chen, F. Febriani, H. Yamaguchi, C. Yoshino, J.-Y. Liu, and S. Yoshida (2014) Statistical analysis of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Japan, during 2001-2010. Journal of Geophysical Reseach, Space Physics, 119, 4998-5011. doi:10.1002/2014JA019789
53. Zhuang J., Ogata Y., Vere-Jones D., Ma L. and Guan H. (2014). Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region. In Seismic Imaging, Fault Rock Damage and Healing, edited by Li Y., Germany: De Gruyter together with China: Higher Education Press. Pages: 351-376.
52. Zoeller G., Holschneider M., Hainzl S. and Zhuang J. (2014). The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(2): 769-779. doi:10.1785/0120130103.
51. Jia K., Zhou S., Zhuang J., and Jiang C. (2014). Possibility of the independence between the 2013 Lushan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on Longmen Shan Fault, Sichuan, China. Seismological Research Letters, 85: 60-67. doi:10.1785/0220130115.
50. Zhuang J., Werner M.J. and Harte D.S. (2013). Stability of earthquake clustering models: Criticality and branching ratios. Physical Review E., 88(6): 062109. doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.88.062109.
49. Jiang C., Zhuang J., Long F. and Han L. (2013). Statistical analysis of ETAS parameters in the early stage of the 2013 Lushan MS7.0 earthquake sequence. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 35(5):661-669. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2013.05.005 (In Chines with English abstract).
48. Jiang C.S., Wu Z.L. and Zhuang J.C. (2013). ETAS model applied to the Earthquake-Sequence Association (ESA) problem: the Tangshan sequence.Chinese Journal Geophysics, 56(9): 2971-2981, doi: 10.6038/cjg20130911
47. Talbi A., Nanjo K., Zhuang J., Satake K. and Hamdache M. (2013). Interevent times in a new alarm-based earthquake forecasting model. Geophysical Journal international. 194 (3): 1823-1835. doi:10.1093/gji/ggt194
46. Ogata Y., Katsura K., Falcone G., Nanjo K. and Zhuang J. (2013). Comprehensive and Topical Evaluations of Earthquake Forecasts in Terms of Number, Time, Space, and Magnitude. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103:1692-1708. doi:10.1785/0120120063
45. Wang T., Zhuang J, Kato T. and Bebbington M. (2013). Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50554.
44. Talbi A., Nanjo K., Satake K., Zhuang J. and Hamdache M. (2013). Comparison of seismicity declustering methods using a probabilistic measure of clustering. Journal of Seismology. 17(3): 1041-1061. doi:10.1007/s10950-013-9371-6
43. Jacobs K. M., Smith E. G. C., Savage M. K., and Zhuang J. (2013) Cumulative rate analysis: a clustering algorithm for swarm dominated catalogs. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 553-569. doi:10.1029/2012JB009222
42. Nanjo K.Z., Tsuruoka H., Yokoi S., Ogata Y., Falcone G., Hirata N., Ishigaki Y., Jordan T.H., Kasahara K., Obara K., Schorlemmer D., Shiomi K. and Zhuang J. (2012). Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results. Geophysical Journal International. 191(2), 653--658. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05626.x.
41. Zhuang J., Harte D, Werner M.J., Hainzl S. and Zhou S. (2012). Basic models of seismicity: temporal models. Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-79905851. Available at http://www.corssa.org.
40. Zhuang J. (2012). Long-term earthquakeforecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering. Research in Geophysics, 22, e6. doi:10.4081/rg.2012.e8. [pdf apendix]
39. Console R., Yamaoka K. and Zhuang J. (2012). Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts. International Journal of Geophysics, 2012, 217923. doi:10.1155/2012/217923. Editorial of special issue: Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts, Console R., Yamaoka K. and Zhuang J. (editors) [online version]
38. Zhuang J.-C. and Jiang C.-S. (2012). Evaluation of the prediction performance of the Annual Cosultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency by using the gambling score. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese with English abstract), 55: 1695-1709. doi:10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.05.026.
37. Peng Y., Zhou S., Zhuang J. and Shi J. (2012). An approach to detect the abnormal seismicity increase in Southwestern China triggered co-seismically by 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.2 earthquake. Geophysical Journal International, 189: 1734-1740. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05456.x.
36. van Stiphout T., Zhuang J. and Marsan D. (2012). Seismicity declustering. Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-52382934. Available at http://www.corssa.org. [Online version][Software].
35. Parsons T., Ogata Y., Zhuang J. and Geist E. L. (2012). Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests. Geophysical Journal International, 188: 1425-1440. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x
34. Zhuang J. and Jiang C. (2012). Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China. Tectonophysics, 524-525: 155-164. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.12.033
33. Zechar J.D., Hardebeck J.L., Michael A.J., Naylor M., Steacy S., Wiemer S., Zhuang J. and the CORSSA working group (2011). Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis. Seismological Research Letters, 82: 686-690, doi: 10.1785/gssrl.82.5.686. [ FREE PUBLIC VERSION ] .
32. Zhang L.P. and Zhuang J. (2011). An improved version of the Load/Unload Response Ratio method for forecasting strong aftershocks. Tectonophysics, 509, 191-197, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.06.008
31. Zhuang J., Werner M.J., Hainzl S., Harte D. and Zhou S. (2011). Basic models of seismicity: spatiotemporal models. Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-07487583. Available at http://www.corssa.org. [pdf]
30. Marzocchi W. and Zhuang J. (2011). Statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in Italy and Southern California. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L09310, doi:10.1029/2011GL047165.
29. Zhuang J. (2011). Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model. Earth Planets Space, 63, 207-216. doi:10.5047/eps.2010.12.010
28. Wang Q., Jackson D.D. and Zhuang J. (2010). Missing links in earthquake clustering models. Gephysical Research Letters,37 , L21307, doi:10.1029/2010GL044858
27. Zechar J.D. and Zhuang J. (2010). Risk and return: evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake predictions. Geophysical Journal International, 182, 1319--1326, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04666.x
26. Wang Q., Jackson D.D. and Zhuang J. (2010). Are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California? J. Geophys. Res., 115, B08310, doi:10.1029/2009JB007031
25. Jiang C.S. and Zhuang J.C. (2010). Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese with English abstract), 53(2): doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.02.001
24. Zhuang J. (2010). Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts . Geophysical Journal International. 181: 382-390. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04496.x
23. Zhang L.P., Yin X.C., Zhuang J., Zhang X.T., Yuan S. and Liang N. (2009). Load/Unload Response Ratio Analysis of the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence. Earthquake, 29(1), 60-67 (in Chinese with English abstract).
22. Zhuang J. (2009). Statistical models for earthquake clustering and declustering. Proceeding of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (In Japanese with English abstract). Vol. 57, 179-193.
21. Zhuang J., Christophosen A., Savage M.K., Vere-Jones D., Ogata Y. and Jackson D.D. (2008). Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities. Journal of Geophysical Research. 113, B11302, doi:10.1029/2008JB005579
20. Vere-Jones D. and Zhuang J. (2008). On the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model. Physical Review E., 78, 047102. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.78.047102
19. Yin X.C., Zhang L.P., Zhang H.H., Yin C., Wang Y.,Zhang Y., Peng K., Wang H., Song Z., Yu H. and Zhuang J. (2006). LURR's Twenty Years and its Perspective. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163: 2317-2341. doi:10.1007/s00024-006-0135-x
18. Zhuang J. (2006). Second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and applications in model evaluation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 68(4), 635-653. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2006.00559.x.
17. Zhuang J. and Ogata Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks. Physical Review, E. 73, 046134. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.
16. Ogata Y. and Zhuang J. (2006). Space--time ETAS models and an improved extension. Tectonophysics. 413(1-2), 13-23.
15. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2005). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes. Chap. 15 (Pages 275-290) of Case Studies in Spatial Point Process Models, Edited by Baddeley A., Gregori P., Mateu J., Stoica R. and Stoyan D.. Springer-Verlag, New York. 320 pages.
14. Zhuang J. (2005). Discussion on "Residual analysis for spatial point processes" by Baddeley A., Turner R., M{\o}ller J. and Hazelton M.. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 67(5) 656-657, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00519.x.
13. Zhuang J., Vere-Jones D., Guan H., Ogata Y. and Ma L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in a region around Beijing. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162: 1367-1396, doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2674-3. [data]
12. Zhuang J., Chang C.P., Ogata Y. and Chen Y.I.(2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using a point process model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.
11. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, No. B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879
10. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97: 369-380.
9. Ma L. and Zhuang J. (2001). Relative quiescence within the Jiashi swarm in China: an application of the ETAS point process model. Journal of Applied Probability, Special Volume for "Probability, Statistics and Seismology". Edited by D. Delay. 38(A): 213-221.
8. Zhuang J. and Ma L. (2000). Main Shock and After Shock -- From the Omori law to the epidemic aftershock model. Recent Development in World Seismology (In Chinese with English abstract), 2000 No. 5: 12-18.
7. Zhuang J. (2000). Statistical modeling of seismicity patterns before and after the 1990 Oct 5 Cape Palliser earthquake, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 43: 447-460.
6. Liu J., Zhuang J., Vere-Jones D., Shi Y. and Ma L. (2000). The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 13: 38-49.
5. Zhuang J. and Yin X. (2000). Random distribution of the loading and unloading response ratio under the assumptions of Poisson models. Earthquake Research in China. 14(2).
4. Wang H., Peng K., Zhuang J., Zhang X. and Yin X. (1999). Analysis on the Effect of Sample conditions on the Results of Load/Unload Response Ratio. Earthquake (In Chinese with English abstract). 19(3):223-229.
3. Liu J., Vere-Jones D., Ma L., Shi Y. and Zhuang J. (1998). The principle of coupled stress release model and its application. Acta Seismologica Sinica. 11: 273-281.
2. Shi Y., Liu J., Zhuang J. and Ma L. (1998). Applications of mechanical and statistical models to study of seismicity and prediction of synthetic earthquakes. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 11: 421-430.
1. Zhuang J. and Ma L. (1998). The stress release model and results from modeling features of some seismic regions in China. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 11: 59-70.
Unpublished Manuscripts
1. Zhuang J.(2006). Second-order residual anaysis of space-time point processes and applications in model evaluation Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. in press. [manuscript: pdf]
2. Zhuang J. (2006). Likelihood based detection of cluster centers for Neyman-Scott point processes. In preparation.
3. Schoenberg F.P. and Zhuang J. (2006). Thinning a spatial point process into a Poisson process. In preparation.
Research Memorandums, Work Reports and Conference Proceedings
1. Yin X., Cheng X., Wang Y., Wang H., Peng K., Zhang Y. and Zhuang J. (1999). Development of a new approach for earthquake prediction -- Load/Unload Response Ratio. First ACES Workshop Proceedings (edited by Mora Peter), APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation.
2. Ogata Y. and Zhuang J. (2001). Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the multi-element prediction formula:
Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes M>=4.0 around
3. Zhuang J., Vere-Jones D., Guan Huaping, Ogata Y. and Ma L. (2004). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in a region around Beijing.
Research Memorandum, No. 916, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
4. Zhuang J. (2005). Multi-dimensional second-order residual anaysis of space-time point processes and its applications in modelling earthquake data.
Research Memorandum, No. 941, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
5. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes.
International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling and its Applications (SPPA).
2004/04/04 -- 2004/04/08, Benicassim, Castellon (
Ph. D. Thesis
Zhuang J. (2003). Some Applications of Point Processes in Seismicity Modelling and Prediction.
Ph. D. thesis, the Graduate Unversity for Advanced Studies,
Some Invited Talks
1. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Visualizing goodness-of-fit of a point process model for earthquake clusters.
Cherry Bud Workshop --- Analysis of Natural and Social Phenomena:Data Science and System Reduction. 2004/03/21 -- 2004/03/23.
Pan Pacific Hotel,
2. Zhuang J., Ogata Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2004). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes.
International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling and its Applications (SPPA).
2004/04/04 -- 2004/04/08, Benicassim, Castellon (
[Home]
updated on 12/July/2022.